Looking Ahead: 2012 is a Good Year for Obama

This year’s midterm elections ended on a negative note for the Democratic Party as Republicans took control of the House and gained seats in the Senate. But a Yale econometrist, Ray C. Fair, is already delivering optimistic news for Democrats by making the claim that if Obama runs for reelection, he will win the 2012 presidential election by a landslide. The basis of Professor Fair’s claim is tied to James Carville’s popular slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid!” According to Fair’s econometric models–one that produces forecasts for the macro economy and another that uses economic inputs to forecast national popular vote–the economy will pick up by 2012 and this turn of events will make Obama wildly popular once again.

Of course, Professor Fair’s claim might be a bit premature, especially given that we don’t even know who all the potential candidates are. Also, polls show that public support for reelecting Obama continues to drop. Furthermore, the 2012 Electoral College map will undergo revisions based on the 2010 Census and projections currently show that the Democratic Party will have a net loss of six electoral votes in “safe states” while the Republican Party will have a net gain of six.

Despite the many factors that will play a role in determining the 2012 presidential result, Professor Fair’s claim is not one that should be ignored. When it comes to presidential elections, history has shown that voters use retrospective voting. They look at the incumbent’s performance, especially in relation to the economy, when casting their votes (as Obama is well aware). If Professor Fair is correct and the economy is back on its feet by 2012, Obama can very likely ride into his second term with as much hype as his first.