Economy and the Midterm Election Results

During last week’s 2010 Midterm Elections, the Republicans made net gains of 6 seats in the Senate and 64 in the House. This was a dynamic shift from the Democrats to the Republicans (click on the 4^th button to see that “This year’s election was one of the largest House shake-ups of the last 50 years”), and it mostly reflected the frustration and economic anxiety of the independent voters.

While every demographic shifted to the Republicans, there was a greater percentage shift toward the GOP among those who were worried about health care and the economy (Click on the 10^th button to see that “The Republican wave was driven by many demographic groups”). Perhaps this is because even though the recession officially ended in June 2009, unemployment rate has continued to surge until the 9.6 percent we are at today. So, many households still feel like we are in recession and they blame it on the President and his party. According to New York Times, 37% of the voters “cast[ed] their votes to express opposition to Mr. Obama’s policies.”

However, it is important to note that it was not necessarily disgruntled party members that switched from voting Democrat to Republican, based on issues such as these. The swaying votes, which counteracted the results of the previous surge election, actually came from the 10-20% of “true independents,” who have become more conservative in their ideologies. According to Brookings, “If Independents had split their vote between the parties this year the way they did in 2006, the Republicans share would have been 4.7 percent lower—a huge difference.” Other factors such as a higher than usual voter turnout of older and more conservative voters, as well as a lower turnout of the younger generation that was more involved in the presidential elections, did not have as much overall effect as the votes of these “true independents.”

While the results of the Midterm Elections were able to send a clear message, it is debatable whether such achievement through retrospective voting is beneficial in the long run. At least, we are now in for two years of gridlock, with the House and Senate controlled by different parties.