The Presidency and Party Polarization: Obama's Pitfall

Party polarization and increasing tension in Congress will certainly be making White House Political Strategist David Axelrod's job a little tougher as he begins to plan President Obama's 2012 re-election campaign within the next year. Because of the current strong common platform trend that each party has established nationwide, President Obama will have to do a very careful job of appealing to both Democrats and Republicans within the next year of his first term in office.

Now that the Republicans have won the majority in the House of Representatives, Mr. Obama will be forced to compromise many of his original campaign promises while still maintaining his liberal values in order to work with the GOP, who he admitted he didn’t reach out to enough in the first two years in office. His biggest battle may be about the Bush-era tax cuts: while Republicans want tax cuts to extend to all Americans, Mr. Obama refuses to spend the $700 billion that tax cuts to the wealthy would require.

As President Obama seeks bipartisanship, he will need to gain support from at least one Republican ally who can help him advocate and seek the support from the House and the Senate minority (hopefully causing more Senate centralization), which will be the key to compromising on domestic tax and government spending issues.

These major issues that are causing such grand divides in the parties will most likely not be among the first compromises made. Republican support may initially need to come through compromises in the energy and education reform that Mr. Obama has placed near the top of his agenda. Mr. Obama may be able to win the support of John Kyl (R), Arizona in a compromise over a nuclear arms treaty with Russia, a relationship that may give him an opening among the Senate minority and more support from the House.

However, incoming Speaker of the House John Boehner will not be jumping on the Obama Administration bandwagon just yet. Boehner has noted, “There's a reason why we have Democrats and Republicans. We believe in different things about the appropriate role of the federal government.” House Republican centralization under Boehner could be likened to that of Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich’s organization and leadership. A new “Republican Revolution” may be around the corner…potentially casting dark clouds over Obama’s chances of seeking effective compromise.