Obama's decision on Afghanistan: a 'plebiscitary presidency'?

Earlier in the month, President Obama pushed his Afghan war council for revisions in strategy options presented to him before he narrowed in on his final decision on escalating troop levels in Afghanistan. Amongst the options the president is known to be considering are sending in a conservative number like 10,000 to 15,000 troops, a middle-figure of 20,000 or an additional 30,000 to 40,000 (which is General McChrystal’s personal recommendation). However, he decision-making process he is following with regard to increased troop deployment has been a contentious issue – many members of Congress have expressed dissatisfaction with him prolonging his decision and not providing the country with any real direction on the matter, and rival political figures like Dick Cheney have even gone on the record and accused him of “dithering”.

Political pundits have talked about the different factors that have weighed in on his pushing-back of the announcement on the issue – the Afghan elections, Pakistan’s successful military crackdowns against militants or simply the need to make a “wiser decision, that is better for America and the world.” But what about the role of public opinion on the whole matter? As we have seen from Craig Rimmerman’s opinions on the ‘plebiscitary presidency’, “the president seeks to govern though the direct support of the American people.” Obama's strategy session took place just as a new opinion poll showed a growing number of Americans believe the war in Afghanistan is not going well and disapprove of his handling of the situation.  Due to the record number of casualties reported this year, public support for the war has eroded. And the president must be aware of the fact that sending in more troops could become a political liability for him ahead of congressional elections next year. 

According to Rimmerman, the plebiscitary presidency is characterized by the fact that “presidential power and legitimacy emanates from citizen support as measured through public opinion polls.” Public approval of Obama's handling of Afghanistan has dropped from earlier on in July of this year. 45 percent approve of how Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan, compared with 48 percent who disapprove -- up one percentage point from just one month ago. And there is no doubt that the Obama administration is aware of these numbers and their implications.

On the one hand, President Obama has to be careful not to displease voters who are already disgruntled with the situation in Afghanistan while at the same time making sure to come to the “right decision” that is in the best interests of the country. According to a Washington Post- ABC News opinion poll released last week, 46 percent of Americans support a large influx of troops to fight insurgents and train the Afghan military, while 45 percent back a smaller number of new U.S. forces more narrowly focused on training. It’s no wonder that President Obama, who must want the majority of Americans to be satisfied with his final decision, is taking so long to announce it! Just judging by the numbers, it appears as though he has a really difficult decision ahead of him. So while Obama’s decision-making process has definitely been influenced by the tensions between several competing considerations, public support, or now the lack of it, is also surely playing a role.