Obama's Star Power Fading? Not so fast!

New Jersey’s gubernatorial election this year between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine and his Republican rival Chris Christie has received special attention from the White House. President Obama campaigned for Corzine three times during the summer election season. Just two days before the election with Corzine still trailing Christie by several percentage points, President Obama headlined a pair of get-out-the-vote rallies for the unpopular Governor in Newark and Camden, again urging registered Democrats to help him by reelecting Corzine. White House’s anxiety for this race is justified because this election, along two others (Virginia’s gubernatorial election and New York’s 23^rd Congressional District election) is the first real test of Obama’s influence among voters since last year’s presidential election. The outcome of these elections will determine whether or not Obama’s popularity had staying power and can be transferred over to other democratic candidates. A positive outcome for Obama will greatly improve his ability to use the power of persuasion with the members of Congress on future key legislatures. “If Corzine can activate the Obama surge vote in New Jersey, that would suggest that last year was more than just a flash, that it has staying power,” said Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University.

Unfortunately for the Democratcs, Corzine lost the election to Christie despite having spent twice as much money campaigning and having President Obama as his speaker. Christie’s win marks the Republicans’ first gubernatorial victory in New Jersey in a dozen years. To many, this naturally suggests that Obama was losing his star power. Some Republicans even went as far as to say that voters were “reacting to Obama’s policies” by voting Republican. However, these assumptions are ungrounded because they do not take into account that Corzine had been highly unpopular since he had been elected. Polls before the election showed that voters in New Jersey remained strongly supportive of President Obama. In another poll, 76 percent of New Jersey voters said that their vote in the governor’s race will be based solely on state and local issues. 70 percent of voters in a similar poll said that Obama actively campaign for Corzine would have no impact on their vote in the race.

Although it is dubious what Corzine’s loss say about Obama influence among voters in New Jersey, many democrats may indeed view this loss as an indication of Obama’s declining presidential power. Presidential power is framed by three determinants, one of which is presidential popularity. Party Democrats may see Obama’s inability to elect Corzine in New Jersey as a sign that Obama is losing his popularity and his influence on voters. As a result, they may not be compelled to vote with the president on future legislatures. Similarly, Obama can no longer use his influence over voters to bargain with members of the Congress or candidates of an election, diminishing his power of persuasion.