GOP Focuses Efforts on 2010 Gubernatorial Elections

The GOP is hoping that the reorganization of congressional districts after the 2010 census will help the party regain seats in the House of Representatives. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the Redistricting Data Office is already beginning to prepare for the 2010 Census Redistricting Data Program. In order to reorganize congressional districts by 2011, census officials are consulting with the offices of every state’s governor as well as legislators and election officials.

Republicans are relying on the 2010 gubernatorial elections to give them the advantage when it comes time to redistrict because of the immense power that most governors hold over where district boundaries are set. In the 2008 elections there were 11 gubernatorial elections in which the Democrats increased the majority they already held. Currently there are 29 Democratic governors but if the Republicans can manage to win back the majority, they would be well positioned to reshape the political map.

There will be 36 seats up for election in 2010 and 32 of those positions are in states where the governor will play a direct role in redistricting. In 28 states the governor has the power to veto any redistricting plan, in 5 states the governor is charge of making appointments to the redistricting board, and in 3 states the governor is consulted directly in the making of the redistricting plans. Chris Schrimpf, the spokesperson for the Republican Governor’s association believes that, “We could feasibly see 25 to 30 congressional seats swing as the result of redistricting. And the state legislatures and governor could determine that swing.”

However, Democrats who also have their eyes on the 2010 gubernatorial races seem secure in the current political balance. Brian Namey, the spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association believes the Democratic governors to be “a formidable line of defense against Republicans who would like to Tom DeLay us out of congressional seats.” While the GOP may seem overly optimistic in their predictions, redistricting – in conjunction with the addition of Republican congressional seats due to increasing populations in states with Republican governors – could significantly change the political landscape in the next decade.