Look Ma! New Polls!

President Bush’s approval rating has dropped to an all-time low of 28%, the same as President Carter’s in 1979. This is the first time a president’s approval rating has dropped that low since Carter, and the public seems to be projecting its disapproval of Bush onto the Republican candidates. Newsweek published new polls showing Americans favoring Democratic candidates in every question posed, such as “Do you lean more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?” This poll can be rather confusing though, the current total saying Clinton is favored by 49% over Giuliani’s 46% with 5% being undecided, but the individual breakdowns amongst Republicans, Democrats and Independents seem inconsistent with this. 89% of Republicans favor Giuliani over the 9% who favor Clinton, but 12% of Democrats say they favor Giuliani over 85% favoring Clinton. Then amongst Independents Giuliani is favored 53% to 40%. It is difficult to see how this adds up to a majority favoring Clinton overall. The polls also show that Clinton is heavily favored over Obama and Edwards amongst registered Democrats (51% to 39% over Obama and 57% to 38% over Edwards), though it has decreased a bit over time. Giuliani is still the favorite Republican. Another poll shows that amongst registered Democrats and Republicans, 38% of Republicans are dissatisfied with their party candidates while only 14% of Democrats are dissatisfied with their candidate options.

The methods used to gather this data fall into the trap of polling we discussed in class because they used telephone interviews with 1,001 people. This means the results are skewed based on who was available to take a call and who was willing to answer. We know from class that women tend to answer the phone more often than men, and it is probably not the best representation of moderates since those who answered the interview most likely felt strongly about the issues. Also, 1,001 people is a relatively small sample of the entire U.S. population, and cannot account for the views of those who do not have access to a telephone or are not home during the times the interviewers have called, such as the poor who work many hours and may not have a phone.

The NY Times has this article summarizing the GOP debate last Thursday, which they say “highlighted a party in flux as it struggles to figure out how to retain the White House for a third consecutive term”. Oh, drama.