The Jewish Vote

During the debate on Wednesday night our good friend George Stephanopoulos questioned both democratic presidential hopefuls on U.S. reactions to an Iranian attack on Israel. The next day the headlines of all the major Israeli newspapers focused on Senator Hillary Clinton's staunch reply to such an attack. She said, "An attack on Israel would trigger massive retaliation from the United States," and continued to describe a "security umbrella" she would like to create for Israel and other allies in the area. Senator Barack Obama vowed to "take appropriate action" and described such an attack as "unacceptable." He also spoke of Israel as a strong ally who's security is of paramount importance.
I couldn't help but realize the focus on Clinton's response and came to realize that the concrete and strong comment on retaliation is something that strikes many Israeli's and thus the focus in the Israeli newspapers. Obama's comments were reassuring but more general and less to the point.
With everything that happened regarding Jeremiah Wright it is important and very interesting to look at where Jewish support falls in this election. In an article from the Jerusalem Post published April 16th, Jewish support for Obama (or lack thereof) is researched in Pennsylvania. Although Josh Shapiro, the deputy speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and a Jew himself showed his support for Obama, the audience (or at least those interviewed in the article) still had major hesitations. One woman, who is a Clinton supporter, said, "I can't quite put my finger on it, but I have questions [about Obama]. I just don't know if we know who the real Obama is." Her husband, also included in the article, said, "he planned to vote for McCain because he believed the former navy officer would be the strongest supporter of Israel and he objected to Obama's willingness to talk to the leaders of Iran and other rogue states." This certainly leads me to question if an Obama nomination will lead Clinton supporters, namely Jewish supporters, to the Republican side.
Contrary to this article, a Gallup poll conducted a month ago showed that out of 348 Jewish Democrats polled, which is an necessary oversampling, only 48% supported Clinton and 43% Obama. This mere 5 point difference is not large enough to see any real trend in Jewish voting because it is within the margin of error.
I guess that leaves us right where we began.