Veto Showdown On the Horizon

Today, the Senate passed a $95 billion war funding bill that sets a deadline for troop withdrawal from Iraq by next April. Even before the House passed its first version of the bill – which ordered all combat troops out by September 1st, 2008 – on March 23rd, Bush had threatened to veto anything but a “clean” bill. Therefore, it will hardly be a surprise, when the Democrats send the bill to the White House early next week, that Bush sticks to his word and throws it right back at Congress. Being that the bill passed with a narrow majority in both the House (218-208 on Wednesday) and Senate (51-46), it is highly unlikely that Pelosi and Reid will be able to rally the two-thirds majority in their respective houses to turn the legislation into law after Bush’s veto. Even if she launches her most ferocious whip operation, I’m skeptical that Pelosi can convince 72 house members (mostly Republicans) to vote for the bill. As for Reid, he’ll have a hard enough time bringing the two who abstained from voting - Republican Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina - over from the dark side, let alone convince 13 additional senators who voted against the bill, which includes independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

I hesitate to add that there is a slim, slim, chance that Bush may decide not to veto the emergency supplemental appropriations bill after all and instead play the blame avoidance game. Right now, Congress is essentially giving the White House a way out: the Bush Administration can simply back down, saying that money to support the troops now was of utmost importance, and that they did not want to veto the bill and risk not having the funds by May 15th (if the bill is not passed by then, the troops will be stranded in Iraq longer than necessary). In a year, if the U.S. cannot win the war by the bill’s withdrawal date, then the White House can point the finger at Congress and insist that the outcome would have been in their favor if the bill had not contained a timetable. In the end, it will all come down to if the Bush administration can realize how much of a lost cause this war really is.