Progress between Israelis and Palestinians?

Secretary Rice spent early last week traveling in the Middle East region and spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and Palestinian President Abbas. She successfully persuaded the two to met twice a month to "focus on day-to-day concerns like movement and access for Palestinians into and out of Gaza and the occupied West Bank, and security issues like arms smuggling and rocket fire from Gaza," reported the New York Times. While seemingly a positive development, these talks come at a time with little to no hope of peace; Israel is facing an existential threats from Iran and Iranian funded terrorists, and the leaders of the Palestinian government, members of the terrorist group Hamas, refuse to recognize Israel's right to exist. In this framework, the plan to improve communications seems to hold little chance of success.

So why is this happening now? The answer hinges less on Middle Eastern politics than on American politics. Having failed in nearly every foreign policy endeavor, President Bush sees this as one last chance to salvage a foreign policy legacy. Much as President Clinton made a final effort at Middle East Peace during his final months in office, President Bush hopes he can do the same before he expends any remaining political capital.

There are however, notable differences between the two strategies. The Clinton talks, which came incredibly close to successfully forming a permanent two state solution, were the result of eight years of constitutive engagement. From the Oslo accords in 1993 all through the decade, the Clinton team had continuously been involved in the region, which made attempts at a comprehensive plan viable. Bush however, while incredibly supportive of Israel, has missed opportunities to spend political capital in the Middle East at risk of squandering a chance to reiterate his message on Iraq.

Partisan politics in America are playing into the Bush team's destined-to-fail strategy. In a recent column for the New York Times, Tom Friedman quotes Gidi Grinstein, the head of Israel's premier strategy policy group. Grinstein says that the Bush plan is "A.B.C. -- anything but Clinton...But by not endorsing the Clinton parameters, we are back with plans that are much worse."

While we will have to wait and see, this plan holds little chance of success. Much like in US dealings with the rest of the world, it seems a resolution in the Middle East will have to wait until at least after November 2008.