Does Change for Cuba mean Change for US-Cuba Realtions?

BBC News reported today that Fidel Castro missed an important military acknowledgement of Havana and belated birthday celebration in his honor. His public absence continues to suggest that his health is worsening. If this is the case, it has the potential to lead to drastic political change. In his absence, Raúl Castro addressed the nation and “attacked Washington but also left open the possibility of improving ties.”

In his speech, Raúl Castro referred to the conflict between the US and Cuba and acknowledged an interest in resolving differences between the two nations. As Raúl Castro asserts authoritative power of Cuba while the health of his brother continues to deteriorate, his willingness to negotiate with the US could have strong political implications for Cuba. Additionally, this could create an opportunity to rebuild the relationship between the United States and Cuba, which was severed by an economic embargo in 1962.

But how would the United States react to a change in regime for Cuba? Just last week, the US State Department openly “criticized the replacement of one Castro by another and said Cubans should have the opportunity for democratic change.” One Sate Department official noted that, “We think the Cuban people need to be given the opportunity to see and have democratic change. We believe that is what the Cuban people would like to have.”