Analyzing a Democratic Takeover in the House

According to the Cook Political Review, a survey conducted by the Democracy Corps identified 49 Republican districts that are in serious danger of being usurped by Democratic challengers. The Democratic party would need to gain just 15 seats on November 7th to have a majority in the House.

The Democrats, however, are swiftly moving past the most contested races and heading into strongly Republican territory, under the direction of James Carville, who suggested that the Democrats utilize millions of dollars to assist "previously ignored Democratic challengers."

The Democratic party has not yet sealed their victory. In an essay published earlier this year by Political Science professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, the notion of macro versus micro is brought into consideration. Abramowitz concludes that national factors will have an effect on the 2006 midterm election, but he also points to the inherent advantage of all incumbents, as well as the fact that the national political mood does not necessarily predict the outcomes of specific, localized elections.

Although control of the House is within close reach of the Democrats, they aren't taking their victory for granted. Other factors may make their takeover more difficult than originally thought. The outcome will remain ambiguous until Americans cast their votes on November 7.